Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry
DOI
10.55730/1300-011X.3226
Abstract
Forests play a crucial role in regulating the global carbon cycle, but there are few existing studies on measuring the carbonfootprint of forest systems and analyzing the driving factors for sustained growth. This study investigated the carbon footprint of forestsystems, examined the driving factors behind their sustained growth under patterns of global climate change, and developed a researchmethodology to understand this sustained growth mechanism. To determine the carbon footprint and carbon-carrying capacity offorest systems, this study began with the impact of cities on forest systems and constructed a carbon footprint account for forest systems.Based on a relative growth model and variable relative growth rate model, the carbon-carrying capacity of a forest system was measured.On this basis, a partial least squares regression method was introduced and a driving factor model for sustained carbon footprintgrowth was established. To better handle data on various factors, a moving window and particle swarm optimization algorithm wereintroduced for optimization. The proposed model was used to analyze the carbon footprint of a forest system in a specific province ofChina. The results showed that the carbon footprint of this forest system presented fluctuating growth, with an increase of 38.17% from23.34 × 106 t of CO2eq in 2013. The carbon-carrying capacity had a decrease of 4.16%. The order of importance of the driving factorsfor the sustainable growth of the forest system’s carbon footprint was as follows: forest area, urbanization rate, added proportion ofsecondary industry, soil conditions, vegetation coverage, farmers’ per capita net income, fixed assets investment, GDP, energy intensityof GDP, total retail sales of social consumer goods, and permanent population. The proposed method can effectively measure the carbonfootprint and its sustained growth momentum of forest systems, offering good practicality.
Keywords
Global climate change pattern, forest system, carbon footprint, carbon account, MW-PSO-PLS, factors driving sustained growth
First Page
859
Last Page
875
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
ZHANG, WENBO and LIU, GUANGXU
(2024)
"Sustainable carbon footprint growth mechanism in forest systems under patterns ofglobal climate change,"
Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry: Vol. 48:
No.
6, Article 5.
https://doi.org/10.55730/1300-011X.3226
Available at:
https://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/agriculture/vol48/iss6/5
