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Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences

Abstract

Background/aim: Pediatric trauma creates substantial emergency and orthopedic workload, and fluctuations in volume may affect staffing and resources. This study investigated the associations of ambient temperature, precipitation, and calendar characteristics with pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and fracture events, including age-, sex-, and fracture-location-specific patterns.

Materials and methods: All pediatric trauma-related consultations were requested from the Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology by the emergency department between June 1, 2023, and June 1, 2024, were retrospectively analyzed. Consultation and fracture data were aggregated daily. Negative binomial regression was used for count outcomes, temperature nonlinearity was tested using a quadratic term, and weighted linear regression was used for the daily mean age.

Results: Among 12,524 orthopedic consultations, 5091 (40.6%) involved pediatric patients. Of 2128 fracture events, 1848 (86.8%) involved the upper extremity. Fracture counts were higher on weekdays than weekends (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17–1.51) and on school days than nonschool days (IRR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.12–1.40). A quadratic temperature term improved model fit (likelihood ratio chi-square = 14.45, p < 0.001), with the fitted fracture count peaking at approximately 25.1 °C. This nonlinear association was present for upper-extremity fractures but not those of the lower extremity. Each 5 °C increase was associated with a 0.12- year decrease in the mean patient age (coefficient beta (β) = –0.12, 95% CI: –0.22 to –0.03). The proportion of female patients did not change significantly with temperature. After adjustment, precipitation was not independently associated with consultation or fracture counts.

Conclusion: Ambient temperature and calendar characteristics were associated with pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, whereas precipitation was not independently associated after adjustment. These findings may support locally calibrated staffing and resource planning; however, the observational design and absence of direct activity measurements preclude causal interpretation.

Author ORCID Identifier

NURİNURİ KORAY ÜLGENULGEN: 0000-0003-0301-3432

ALİALİ SAİD NAZLIGÜLNAZLIGUL: 0000-0003-3451-3691

NİHAT YİĞİT: 0009-0002-8670-5484

SADIKSADIK EMRE ERGİNOĞLU: 0000-0002-4146-8318

ARSLANARSLAN KAĞANARSLAN KAGAN ARSLAN: 0000-0002-8156-0565

MEHMETMEHMET ORCUNMEHMET ORÇUN AKKURT: 0000-0003-4935-0143

DOI

10.55730/1300-0144.6390

Keywords

ambient temperature, emergency department, pediatric fractures, Pediatric trauma, precipitation, seasonal variation

First Page

1451

Last Page

1461

Publisher

The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK)

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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