Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences
Abstract
The objective of this study was to identify and assess shallow landslide hazard in both spatial and temporal terms within the boundaries of Beşikdüzü District in northeastern Türkiye. The workflow was initiated with the development of a detailed multitemporal mass‑movement inventory map derived from satellite imagery provided on the Google Earth platform,1 covering the period between 2000 and 2018. Inventory mapping was complemented by extensive field verification campaigns to identify discrepancies, confirm spatial accuracy, and document additional morphological details that could not be detected from imagery alone. A 10-m spatial resolution digital elevation model (DEM) was generated from 1:25,000-scale digital topographic maps produced by the General Directorate of Mapping of Türkiye. From this DEM, a suite of secondary topographic derivatives including slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, and topographic wetness index were computed within a geographic information system environment. These preparatory and morphometric parameters formed the basis for the subsequent susceptibility modeling. To determine the temporal probability of rainfall-induced landslides, precipitation datasets acquired from the Turkish State Meteorological Service2 were statistically analyzed. The temporal component was further supported by correlating mapped landslide dates with reports from the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, local interviews, and regional news archives, enabling the identification of rainfall thresholds and recurrence characteristics. Spatial probability was evaluated through areal size–frequency analyses of shallow landslides, combined with a probabilistic logistic regression approach to assess susceptibility. Following the probabilistic framework, potential landslide hazard maps were produced for return periods of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years, incorporating both temporal and spatial probabilities as well as magnitude-dependent thresholds derived from the mapped landslide areas. By integrating inventory data, DEM-derived terrain parameters, rainfall-triggered temporal modeling, and frequency–area distribution analyses, we present a robust and comprehensive methodology for quantifying shallow landslide in the study region.The results provide valuable insights for land-use planning, regional hazard mitigation, and engineering applications in one of Türkiye’s most landslide-prone regions.
DOI
10.55730/1300-0985.2019
Keywords
Landslide hazard, susceptibility, logistic regression, probabilistic, Türkiye
First Page
282
Last Page
302
Publisher
The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK)
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
TEZEL, K, & AKGÜN, A (2026). A shallow landslide hazard assessment using a probabilistic approach: an example from northeastern Türkiye (Beşikdüzü, Trabzon). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 35 (3): 282-302. https://doi.org/10.55730/1300-0985.2019
