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Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

DOI

10.3906/elk-1301-134

Abstract

A novel short-term load forecasting method based on the lazy learning (LL) algorithm is proposed. The LL algorithm's input data are electrical load information, daily electricity consumption patterns, and temperatures in a specified region. In order to verify the ability of the proposed method, a load forecasting problem, using the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection electrical load data, is carried out. Three LL models are proposed: constant, linear, and mixed models. First, the performances of the 3 developed models are compared using the root mean square error technique. The best technique is then selected to compete with the state-of-the-art neural network (NN) load forecasting models. A comparison is made between the performances of the proposed mixed-model LL as the superior LL model and the radial basis function and multilayer perceptron NN models. The results reveal significant improvements in the precision and efficiency of the proposed forecasting model when compared with the NN techniques.

Keywords

Lazy learning, radial basis function, multilayer perceptron, neural networks, mixed model lazy learning, electric power load forecasting

First Page

201

Last Page

211

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