The Probability Distribution of the Drought Parameters of the Central Anatolian Closed Watershed


Abstract: In this research, first the various descriptions of drought were presented and then the statistical characteristics of drought parameters based on monthly data of four streams within the Central Anatolian Closed Watershed were analysed. These parameters are drought duration, drought severity and drought magnitude. The stationarity and randomness analyses of the drought parameters were performed. Trend analysis based upon Student's t-test was used for the stationarity analysis and the tests of serial correlation and cross correlation were used for the randomness analysis. In addition, the theoretical probability distribution functions of streamflow drought number, the drought severity parameter, the maximum severity parameter, the drought duration parameter and the maximum drought duration parameter were obtained using the drought parameter values of Ibrala stream. Finally the goodness of fit test of theoretical probability distributions was performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-Square tests.

Keywords: Drought, probability distribution function, maximum drought severity, longest drought duration, goodness of fit tests.

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