Estimation of future irrigation performance with times series analysis: a case study of Andırın, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey


Abstract: Performance indicators are used to identify the weaknesses and strengths of irrigation schemes. Until now, evaluations have been made using several different statistical methods to determine the performance of irrigation schemes. However, these methods showed the current performance of irrigation schemes and the statistical relationship between them. It is planned to provide adaptation of irrigation networks to climate change with state policies. Therefore, it is of great importance to estimate the future performance of irrigation schemes. In this study, the future irrigation performance of the Andırın irrigation scheme in Kahramanmaraş province Andırın district was estimated using time series forecasting method. Using the data of the Andırın irrigation scheme between 2006 and 2019, the selected performance indicators were estimated until 2025. When examining the results, they suggest that the irrigation scheme has not shown consistency in the past years, so the future performance of the irrigation scheme may be adversely affected. The high amount of irrigation water distributed to per unit irrigated area in this irrigation scheme will result in poor performance in subsequent years if measures such as modernization, transition to pressurized system and modern irrigation methods are not taken and improvements are not made in the future.

Keywords: Forecasting, time series analysis, irrigation performance

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