Modelling beef consumption in Turkey: the ARDL/bounds test approach


Abstract: The study aimed to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between beef consumption and beef prices, chicken meat prices, and per capita income for the period of 1994?2014 in Turkey by employing the ARDL/bounds test approach. After deciding on the presence of cointegration between the related variables, a parsimonious VECM model was estimated to conduct the structural analyses of the impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results of the bounds test suggest a long-run equilibrium relationship between beef consumption and its selected determinants. In addition, the empirical findings indicate that chicken meat prices and per capita income level have a positive effect on beef consumption. The results of variance decomposition reveal that the portion of beef prices in explaining beef consumption is large, whereas chicken meat prices have decreasing impact and income level has increasing impact on beef consumption in the long run. The results of the impulse response function are also consistent with the theory. The findings suggest that beef consumption is sensitive to beef prices and responds negatively to a shock in beef prices.

Keywords: Beef consumption, cointegration analysis, impulse response function, variance decomposition, Turkey

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