Pre-Event Dam Failure Analyses for Emergency Management


Abstract: Simultaneous dam-break analyses of two dams, namely the Nilüfer and Doğancı dams, due to a breach in their bodies, were performed under various hydraulic conditions. Both of the dams are located in the same river branch of the Nilüfer Basin in the province of Bursa in Turkey. The main purpose of the study was to see the negative effects of such failure on the city of Bursa, which is located downstream of the dams, as well as to make available the results of the study to the relevant public officials for their use in a real-time emergency management. The numerical model used in the study is called DAMBRK. This model is very comprehensive and was developed at the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States and is used widely in other countries. The results of the multiple-dam failure analyses performed in different scenarios indicate that some parts of downstream region near Bursa may be affected adversely. It appears that it would be appropriate for the public officials who are in charge of public safety to prepare emergency action plans (EAP) in advance to manage effectively such an undesirable event, in case it occurs.

Keywords: Dam-Break, Breach, Numerical Model, DAMBRK, Emergency Management

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